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The view from America

With still no front-runner in the U.S. race for president, primary elections expose deep divisions in the country

Last week's primary elections in 24 U.S. states was supposed to narrow down the field of Democrats and Republicans seeking their party nominations. By now, we should know which Democrat and which Republican are the clear favorites for their party's nomination to be the next president of the United States.

Instead, the election results last Tuesday did just the opposite, proving that polling data was not correct, that political "experts" were dead wrong, and that this is still very much a wide open election, with no clear front runners - especially among the Democrats.

In short, Americans in both political parties are still uncertain who they would like to see succeed George W. Bush in the White House.

Results in last Tuesday's "Super Primaries" were largely uneven, and since they produced no break-out winner, this election promises to be a drawn-out and extremely expensive campaign leading up to the general election in November.

Already, the breakdown of support for the remaining candidates in the Democratic and Republican races have exposed deep divisions in the country.

On the Democratic side, it's New York Senator Hillary Clinton against Illinois Senator Barak Obama. Results of the primaries show that Mrs. Clinton has the support of women, Hispanics, senior citizens and what is considered the core of the Democratic party: voters in old-line American cities. Obama carried the African-American vote, independents, college-educated voters, younger votes and white males. As a result, Democrats remain divided along gender, class and racial lines.

On the Republican side, the field narrowed further last Thursday when Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney dropped out of the race. He trailed Senator John McCain of Arizona in the primaries and in announcing his withdrawal said that a drawn-out campaign would further divide his party. Still in the race as of late last week was Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

With or without Romney in the race, divisions still remain, especially among the party's hard-line conservatives, who feel strongly about anti-tax, anti-abortion and generally conservative social and economic policies.McCain, a decorated and respected Vietnam War veteran who is making his second attempt for the White House, is far ahead in the important race for delegates who will nominate the party's choice at the Republican nominating convention in July.

Conservative Republicans are already criticizing McCain, saying he's too "liberal" and doesn't represent the core values of the Republican Party. This kind of division isn't helpful as an already fractured party under the leadership of President Bush seeks to unify its ranks. But in the long run, it probably doesn't matter because in the general election even conservative Republicans will vote for their party nominee, no matter how "liberal" they think his positions are on the issues. They certainly would not vote for a Democrat.

The primary election results also call into question the importance and influence that establishment politicians can have when they throw their support behind a single candidate. Just before the primaries, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and his two nieces - Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the former president, and Maria Shriver, wife of the current governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, endorsed Obama. That endorsement garnered enormous press coverage, with the thesis that the Kennedys were passing the baton to a new generation of leadership. In essence, the Kennedy clan was anointing a new king of Camelot.

But this backfired, and the voters didn't buy it. Obama lost California, home turf to Maria Shriver, and he lost Massachusetts, homestate to the Kennedys. Mrs. Clinton's campaign reveled in the victory. But then again, in a twist of irony, she represents her party's establishment, having already lived in the White House and gotten the endorsement of a former president, her husband.

The interesting aspect of the Obama candidacy is two-fold: his race (he is biracial, with an American mother from Kansas and a father from Kenya), and he projects a youthful vitality (thus the comparisons to Kennedy) that promotes a politics of inspiration. His message is for change, and as a biracial American with a booming, convincing voice for his ideas, Obama says he's the most capable candidate to lead the country on a new direction. He has indeed energized a new generation of voters, and so far, they have made a big difference in the primaries that have been won by Obama.

Obama will also benefit from the Hillary factor: there are still many voters who just don't like her. They don't trust her. They call her an opportunist and overly ambitious, as she moved to New York with the intention of running for the Senate and using that as her launching pad for the presidency. And of course there are those, even in the Democratic Party, who won't vote for her because she's a woman.

But it's not over. Hillary Clinton still pulls a big punch. Some pretty important states will vote in the next few weeks that are rich in delegates. Primaries into March are scheduled in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, DC.

Clinton could have an advantage in these states. While Obama has energized the youth, Hillary has energized women, who see this as an historic opportunity to elect a woman president. And she has rallied the Hispanic vote. Going back to the days when her husband was president, she has made a connection to Latinos, who make up a growing proportion of the American population, especially in states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

Fund-raising will be furious in the weeks ahead, as candidates have depleted a big part of their campaign money in the first round of primary elections. Television advertising is the most expensive part of a campaign in America, and candidates must use this media in all

the remaining states in order to get their message out. It's mind-boggling to understand how much a campaign for president can cost in this country, and how much money Americans are willing to give to support the process. Just in the month of January, for example, Obama raised $32 million, and Mrs. Clinton took in $13 million. Add these both sums and you have the annual GNP of some small, third-world countries.

So how might this all be resolved? Some analysts say that neither Clinton nor Obama will get a majority of delegates through the primary voting. This would put the decision in the hands of 769 so-called "super delegates" attending the Democratic nominating convention in August. They represent only 40 percent of the delegates that will choose the nominee, but under the nominating system they hold the cards. These delegates are congressmen, elected party officials and state party leaders who are not committed to a particular candidate.

Among the Republicans, since McCain has a large lead, it's likely that the GOP nominee will be decided well before the GOP convention in July.

The underlying issues in both the Republican and Democratic contests also tend to be different. Democratic voters say they are seeking change in the White House, and a new direction for the country, especially in the war in Iraq. While Republicans indicate that their focus is on the economy, which is sagging and grinding into a recession.

So for the moment, uncertainty reigns. There are no clear candidates, no clear message. Only one thing is for sure: George Bush won't be in the White House come next January.

What is a delegate? What is a primary?

The process of choosing a president in the United States is very different than the one used to select leaders in a parliamentary democracy like Mauritius.

Campaigning and voting here starts early. Although the general election isn't until November, a series of primary elections began in January in Iowa and New Hampshire. These primaries will continue for several more months in different states across the country. Last week was "Super Tuesday," when a large number of primaries were bundled into one day.

Primaries are the first important step in electing a president. They are run by state and local governments. A state primary usually determines which candidate for president will be supported by that state at the national convention of each party. For the Republicans, this will be held in July, and in August for the Democrats.

The delegates vote at the convention and the nominee is chosen. In the general election in November, voters will have two choices: a Republican and a Democrat. Voters can choose either candidate; they are not bound to vote for a candidate based on their party affiliation.

When voters vote in a primary, they are actually voting to award delegates who are bound to vote for a specific candidate at the conventions.

In recent elections the eventual nominee is known well before a convention. The last time a major party's nominee wasn't clear was in 1976, when Republican incumbent President Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan.

In addition to the state delegates that will be pledged to a certain candidate, there are also so-called "super delegates." These delegates are party officials, former presidents (Clinton and Carter), congressmen, senators and state governors. They are not committed to a specific candidate, which is why their votes become important in a contested race.

At the Democratic convention, there will be 4,049 total voting delegates. Of those, 3,253 will be pledged, and another 796 will be unpledged super delegates. To become a party's nominee, a candidate must earn the votes of at least 2,025 delegates. The Republican Party has a different system for selecting delegates through the primaries and has fewer super delegates.

a m e r i c a n   s c e n e

WEEK-END --- dimanche 10 février 2008